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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Reims and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 32, as Reims and Nancy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.33 xG and Nancy 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 45%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Nancy's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights