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Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Le Mans 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Le Mans 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.51 xG and Le Mans 1.12 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Mans landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Le Mans attack 1.06 / defence 1.33, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 46% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 28%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 33%, Le Mans 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Le Mans's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.33 PPG, Le Mans 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Le Mans managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights