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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Reims run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Laval.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Laval 4-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.06 xG and Laval 1.10 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Laval landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Laval attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 34% | Draw 29% | Laval 36%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Laval 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Laval's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.18 PPG, Laval 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights