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Poisson model favours Reims (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Reims face Guingamp.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Reims welcome Guingamp to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Reims: 6 wins from 10 previous clashes against 3 for Guingamp, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Reims winning.

The historical record gives Reims a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Table Context

The standings have Reims (6th, 56 pts) 5 places above Guingamp (11th, 40 pts) — a 16-point gap in Ligue 2.

On home turf, Reims's Ligue 2 record reads 9W 5D 3L this term. Away from home, Guingamp have posted 4W 5D 8L in Ligue 2 this season.

In-Play Data

Reims trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Guingamp trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 53% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 44% | Guingamp 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.60 xG and Guingamp 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.107 / defence 0.983 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Reims games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Reims 46% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 27%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 3.70. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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