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Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.26 xG and Guingamp 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Reims 30% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 41%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 47%, Guingamp 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Guingamp's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Reims (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights