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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grenoble cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grenoble beat Reims 2-4 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.46 xG and Grenoble 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Grenoble outscored their 0.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against Grenoble attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 51% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 22%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Grenoble 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Grenoble's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.12 PPG, Grenoble 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights