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Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Reims 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Dunkerque attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 39%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights