Reims vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Reims's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Reims register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Clermont Foot in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Reims, 3 for Clermont Foot and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 58% versus Clermont Foot 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Clermont Foot 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.73 xG and Clermont Foot 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.298 / defence 1.158 | Clermont Foot attack 0.969 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Reims games / 41 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 30%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Clermont Foot 3.33. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 80% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Reims 1.73 / Clermont Foot 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.298 / def 1.158 | Clermont Foot attack 0.969 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Clermont Foot xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Record (9 meetings): Reims 4W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.30) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.97x) against Reims's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.00
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Reims xG
Total xG
3.13
1.40
Clermont Foot xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Reims and 1.40 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 17W 18D 6L from 41 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 16L across 41 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reims by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 8D 3L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 17W 18D 6L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 16D 16L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.75 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Reims or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Reims
2
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 9 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 60%, Clermont Foot 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Reims) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Reims's games and 60% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.