Reims vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Reims (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Reims's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Reims register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Clermont Foot in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Reims, 3 for Clermont Foot and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reims — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 59% versus Clermont Foot 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 48% | Clermont Foot 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 2.17 xG and Clermont Foot 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.414 / defence 1.028 | Clermont Foot attack 1.037 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.319. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.414 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Reims games / 46 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 55% | Draw 21% | Clermont Foot 25%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Clermont Foot 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Reims (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 80% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 55% | Draw 21% | Clermont Foot 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Reims 2.17 / Clermont Foot 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.414 / def 1.028 | Clermont Foot attack 1.037 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Reims (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Where is Reims vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Clermont Foot part of?
Reims vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 55% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Reims and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Record (9 meetings): Reims 4W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in?
Reims (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (1.41) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.04x) against Reims's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.87
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Reims xG
Total xG
3.58
1.41
Clermont Foot xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
11%
8.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
3%
35.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Reims and 1.41 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 19W 20D 7L from 46 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 10W 18D 18L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reims by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 11W 8D 3L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.07 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 19W 20D 7L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 10W 18D 18L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Clermont Foot away?
Reims's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.86 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Reims or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Reims
2
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Clermont Foot?
From 9 meetings on record, Reims have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Clermont Foot?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 59%, Clermont Foot 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Reims) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Reims's games and 64% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Reims's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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