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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Reims run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat Clermont Foot 4-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.86 xG and Clermont Foot 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.78 / defence 0.83 against Clermont Foot attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 33% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.00 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights