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Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 29, as Reims and Boulogne drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.00 xG and Boulogne 0.89 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Boulogne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Boulogne attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 30%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Boulogne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Boulogne's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.57 PPG, Boulogne 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights