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Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 22, as Reims and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.36 xG and Bastia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Bastia attack 0.80 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 49% | Draw 28% | Bastia 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Bastia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bastia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.26 PPG, Bastia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights