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Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.58 xG and Amiens 0.94 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 52% | Draw 25% | Amiens 22%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Amiens's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.28 PPG, Amiens 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights