🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

RED Star FC 93 and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 9, as RED Star FC 93 and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.35 xG and Rodez 1.55 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Rodez attack 1.06 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 33% | Draw 25% | Rodez 42%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.29 PPG, Rodez 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights