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Stalemate at RED Star FC 93's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 17, as RED Star FC 93 and Reims drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.55 xG and Reims 1.73 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Reims attack 1.34 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 35% | Draw 23% | Reims 42%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Reims 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.35 PPG, Reims 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights