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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RED Star FC 93.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat RED Star FC 93 1-3 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.13 xG and PAU 1.05 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAU outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.86 / defence 1.27 against PAU attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 30% | PAU 33%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, PAU 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

PAU's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.22 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights