RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RED Star FC 93 face Guingamp.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bauer.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. RED Star FC 93's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, RED Star FC 93 have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Guingamp managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 3–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both RED Star FC 93 and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.29 xG and Guingamp 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.909 / defence 1.081 | Guingamp attack 0.921 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.244. Data: 40 RED Star FC 93 games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.29 / Guingamp 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.909 / def 1.081 | Guingamp attack 0.921 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 37% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): RED Star FC 93 5W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.91) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.92x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.48
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.53
1.24
Guingamp xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.24 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 12D 10L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 17L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.27 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.60 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.90 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Guingamp in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
From 5 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 5, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Guingamp 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 55%, Guingamp 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 65% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Guingamp in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of RED Star FC 93's games and 65% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 65% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.