RED Star FC 93 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 44%, yet in-form RED Star FC 93 provide a compelling counter-argument — this RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 host Grenoble at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's home record at Stade Bauer: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Bauer this season.
Grenoble — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Grenoble have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, RED Star FC 93 have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Grenoble 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Grenoble in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 54% versus Grenoble 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 48% | Grenoble 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.22 xG and Grenoble 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.900 / defence 1.104 | Grenoble attack 1.051 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.285. Data: 44 RED Star FC 93 games / 44 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 44%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Grenoble 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grenoble as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RED Star FC 93 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 70% | Grenoble 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.22 / Grenoble 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.900 / def 1.104 | Grenoble attack 1.051 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Grenoble xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 31% chance of winning, Grenoble a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Grenoble (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates RED Star FC 93's attack at 0.90x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
31%
3.23
25%
3.92
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.49
Grenoble xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.49 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 13D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.27 PPG from 44 outings (15W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.32 PPG, Grenoble on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (6W 3D 12L).
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Grenoble away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.29 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
RED Star FC 93 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2026, when RED Star FC 93 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
0
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 3, Grenoble have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Grenoble 0-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 57%, Grenoble 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RED Star FC 93) and 62% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 52% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 62% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Grenoble tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RED Star FC 93 defy the odds to beat Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.22 xG and Grenoble 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Grenoble attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 44%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Grenoble 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Grenoble's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.32 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.