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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RED Star FC 93.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat RED Star FC 93 1-3 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 0.90 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Estac Troyes attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 42% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 28%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.27 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights