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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.01 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Dunkerque attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 32%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Dunkerque 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Dunkerque's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights