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Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Annecy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.20 xG and Annecy 1.16 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 37% | Draw 28% | Annecy 35%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 49%, Annecy 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.14 PPG, Annecy 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights