RED Star FC 93 0-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Annecy make the trip to Stade de Paris to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de Paris, RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RED Star FC 93 are significantly better at Stade de Paris than their overall form suggests.
Annecy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Annecy away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 0.80 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 52% versus Annecy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Annecy 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.918 / defence 1.116 | Annecy attack 0.827 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.039. Data: 29 RED Star FC 93 games / 67 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 48% | Draw 27% | Annecy 25%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 4.00. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 50% | Annecy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 48% | Draw 27% | Annecy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.44 / Annecy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.918 / def 1.116 | Annecy attack 0.827 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Annecy xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 1 Annecy.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.83x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.75
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.40
0.96
Annecy xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 0.96 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 7D 13L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 11W 8D 10L from 29 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.41 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 3W 5D 6L from 14 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Annecy's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Annecy in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Annecy have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Annecy away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.50 PPG; Annecy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Annecy in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Annecy 2-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 50%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (RED Star FC 93) and 43% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Annecy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 43% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Annecy tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Annecy in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat RED Star FC 93 0-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 48% | Draw 27% | Annecy 25%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 52%, Annecy 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.17 PPG, Annecy 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.