RED Star FC 93 1-3 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Amiens to Stade Bauer. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Bauer this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RED Star FC 93 are significantly better at Stade Bauer than their overall form suggests.
Amiens — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RED Star FC 93 1.00 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Amiens and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 57% versus Amiens 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 46% | Amiens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.42 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.933 / defence 0.976 | Amiens attack 0.863 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.226. Data: 35 RED Star FC 93 games / 35 Amiens games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 45% | Draw 28% | Amiens 27%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Amiens 3.70. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 70% | Amiens 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 45% | Draw 28% | Amiens 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.42 / Amiens 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.933 / def 0.976 | Amiens attack 0.863 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Amiens xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 3 Amiens.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 45% chance of winning, Amiens a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.57
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.46
1.03
Amiens xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.03 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 9W 12D 14L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amiens's form line: 13W 5D 17L from 35 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.11 PPG, Amiens on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 13L from 17 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Amiens have gone 13W 5D 17L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Amiens away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.35 PPG; Amiens away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, Amiens have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Amiens 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 53%, Amiens 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RED Star FC 93) and 47% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 41% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 47% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Amiens tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Amiens in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RED Star FC 93.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat RED Star FC 93 1-3 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.42 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 45% | Draw 28% | Amiens 27%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 46%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.11 PPG, Amiens 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.