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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU and Rodez finished level at 3-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.38 xG and Rodez 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 26% | Rodez 35%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 51%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights