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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Reims.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Reims 2-0 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.75 xG and Reims 1.08 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Reims landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it PAU 53% | Draw 24% | Reims 23%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 44%, Reims 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Reims's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.28 PPG, Reims 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights