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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant RED Star FC 93 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RED Star FC 93 beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.18 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.3 short of their projected output. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 34%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual RED Star FC 93 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 45%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights