PAU vs RED Star FC 93 – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant PAU run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RED Star FC 93.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat RED Star FC 93 4-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.26 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.72 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.79 / defence 0.82 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 29% | RED Star FC 93 21%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 38%, RED Star FC 93 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.23 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights