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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nancy cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nancy beat PAU 1-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.35 xG and Nancy 1.21 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nancy outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against Nancy attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 38% | Draw 31% | Nancy 31%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 66%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Nancy's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights