PAU 1-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lorient make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lorient have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lorient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAU 69% and Lorient 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 62% | Lorient 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.43 xG and Lorient 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.144 / defence 0.797 | Lorient attack 0.732 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.204. PAU's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 PAU games / 5 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 54% | Draw 27% | Lorient 18%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Lorient 5.56. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Lorient 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 54% | Draw 27% | Lorient 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG PAU 1.43 / Lorient 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.144 / def 0.797 | Lorient attack 0.732 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: PAU (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Lorient xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Lorient kick off?
PAU vs Lorient kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Lorient?
PAU 1 - 0 Lorient.
Where is PAU vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Lorient part of?
PAU vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 54% chance of winning, Lorient a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both PAU and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Lorient?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Lorient in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Lorient (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.14x the league average against Lorient's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.73x) against PAU's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.68
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
PAU xG
Total xG
2.13
0.70
Lorient xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
4%
22.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for PAU and 0.70 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, PAU have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 13W 14D 12L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient's form line: 10W 9D 20L from 39 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for PAU against 1.00 for Lorient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Lorient have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.26 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Lorient in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 13W 14D 12L in their last 39 games (1.36 PPG), while Lorient have gone 10W 9D 20L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Lorient away?
PAU's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.42 PPG; Lorient away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PAU
0
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Lorient?
From 2 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Lorient have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Lorient 5-0 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lorient see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 58%, Lorient 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (PAU) and 58% (Lorient). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PAU's recent matches and 47% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of PAU's matches and 58% of Lorient's.
Do PAU and Lorient tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lorient in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Lorient 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Lorient 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.43 xG and Lorient 0.70 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Lorient attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 54% | Draw 27% | Lorient 18%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 62%, Lorient 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Lorient's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.36 PPG, Lorient 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.