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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU and Estac Troyes finished level at 1-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 1.26 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 39%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 50%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.37 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights