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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Clermont Foot attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 46% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 27%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 48%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.40 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights