🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

PAU and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU and Clermont Foot finished level at 2-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.33 xG and Clermont Foot 0.82 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Clermont Foot attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 23%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Clermont Foot 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights