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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PAU cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Annecy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Annecy 2-0 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.51 xG and Annecy 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Annecy attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 44% | Draw 25% | Annecy 30%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 47%, Annecy 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.24 PPG, Annecy 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights