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Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat PAU 1-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.52 xG and Amiens 1.33 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Amiens attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 42% | Draw 25% | Amiens 33%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 50%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.36 PPG, Amiens 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights