PAU 0-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Amiens meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp.
Amiens have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amiens have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, PAU have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Amiens managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with PAU winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAU and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Amiens — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 62% versus Amiens 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 57% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.69 xG and Amiens 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.969 / defence 0.792 | Amiens attack 0.953 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.142. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PAU's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 PAU games / 47 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 57% | Draw 24% | Amiens 19%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Amiens 5.26. The model has a clear lean to PAU (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 50% | Amiens 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 57% | Draw 24% | Amiens 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG PAU 1.69 / Amiens 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.969 / def 0.792 | Amiens attack 0.953 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: PAU (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Amiens xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Amiens kick off?
PAU vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Amiens?
PAU 0 - 2 Amiens.
Where is PAU vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Amiens part of?
PAU vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 57% chance of winning, Amiens a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAU and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
Record (6 meetings): PAU 4W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are PAU and Amiens in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about PAU vs Amiens?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.97x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.95x) against PAU's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.17
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
PAU xG
Total xG
2.55
0.86
Amiens xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
28.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for PAU and 0.86 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 15D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.45 PPG from 47 outings (17W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for PAU against 1.45 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 10W 7D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Amiens in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Amiens in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 17W 15D 15L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 17D 13L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Amiens away?
PAU's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.61 PPG; Amiens away: 1.22 PPG.
Have PAU or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Amiens in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
PAU
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Amiens?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 52%, Amiens 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAU) and 39% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Amiens in 30%; Amiens in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of PAU's recent matches and 39% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAU's recent games and 39% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Amiens tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Amiens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.69 xG and Amiens 0.86 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Amiens outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.97 / defence 0.79 against Amiens attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 57% | Draw 24% | Amiens 19%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Amiens win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 57%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.40 PPG, Amiens 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.