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Shock result as Martigues defy the odds to beat Paris FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Martigues beat Paris FC 1-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.18 xG and Martigues 0.84 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Paris FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Martigues outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Martigues attack 0.85 / defence 1.48, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 68% | Draw 19% | Martigues 13%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Martigues win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 44%, Martigues 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Martigues's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Martigues winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Martigues (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights