Paris FC 2-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris FC face Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Grenoble at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's home record at Stade Charléty: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grenoble — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Paris FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Grenoble, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Paris FC winning.
The historical record gives Paris FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Grenoble 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 49% | Grenoble 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.59 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.083 / defence 0.926 | Grenoble attack 0.973 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.137. Data: 47 Paris FC games / 47 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Grenoble 4.17. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | Grenoble 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Paris FC 1.59 / Grenoble 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.083 / def 0.926 | Grenoble attack 0.973 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Grenoble xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Grenoble kick off?
Paris FC vs Grenoble kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Paris FC 2 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Paris FC vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Grenoble part of?
Paris FC vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 51% chance of winning, Grenoble a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris FC and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Grenoble?
Record (6 meetings): Paris FC 5W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Grenoble in?
Paris FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Grenoble (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.08) and Grenoble's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
51%
1.98
25%
3.99
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.02
Grenoble xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.02 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 12D 12L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 18W 13D 16L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.72 PPG, Grenoble on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 6W 5D 11L from 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.26 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Grenoble away?
Paris FC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.95 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Grenoble in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jul 2021, when Paris FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Paris FC
0
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Grenoble?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 7, Grenoble have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Grenoble 1-2 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Grenoble?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Grenoble 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Paris FC) and 50% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Grenoble in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Paris FC's recent games and 50% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Grenoble tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Grenoble 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Grenoble 2-1 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.59 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Grenoble attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 51% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 24%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.72 PPG, Grenoble 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.