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Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Caen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Caen 4-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.02 xG and Caen 0.87 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Caen outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.01 against Caen attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 64% | Draw 21% | Caen 15%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Caen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Caen's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights