Nantes vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nantes host Guingamp at Stade de la Beaujoire in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nantes 0.90 PPG, Guingamp 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nantes have won 0, Guingamp 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 48% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Guingamp 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.796 / defence 1.120 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Nantes's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Nantes games / 45 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 45%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.22. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Nantes 0.97 / Guingamp 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.796 / def 1.120 | Guingamp attack 0.886 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Guingamp kick off?
Nantes vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 29 January 2027 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
Where is Nantes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Guingamp part of?
Nantes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 27% chance of winning, Guingamp a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Nantes and Guingamp in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nantes's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Guingamp's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.61
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.32
1.35
Guingamp xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nantes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Nantes and 1.35 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes come into this having played 44 games, going 7W 11D 26L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.20 PPG from 44 outings (14W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nantes's home form reads 4W 5D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 7W 11D 26L in their last 44 games (0.73 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.77 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Nantes
1
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Guingamp?
From 1 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, Guingamp have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Guingamp 3-3 Nantes.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nantes) and 64% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nantes's recent matches and 59% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nantes's recent games and 64% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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