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Rodez cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nancy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rodez beat Nancy 1-3 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.02 xG and Rodez 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.63 / defence 1.16 against Rodez attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 26% | Draw 26% | Rodez 48%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 47%, Rodez 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Rodez's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nancy 1.11 PPG, Rodez 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights