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Le Mans cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Nancy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Mans beat Nancy 2-4 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 0.84 xG and Le Mans 1.59 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Nancy beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Mans outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.67 / defence 1.32 against Le Mans attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 19% | Draw 27% | Le Mans 54%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 50%, Le Mans 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Le Mans's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Mans (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights