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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nancy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Nancy 0-3 at Stade Marcel Picot, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.05 xG and Guingamp 1.30 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Guingamp outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Guingamp attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nancy 30% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 42%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 44%, Guingamp 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nancy's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guingamp's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nancy 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights