Nancy vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Nancy at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Nancy welcome Dijon to Stade Marcel Picot. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nancy stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Marcel Picot — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel Picot this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have recorded 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nancy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dijon in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nancy, 1 for Dijon and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Nancy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Dijon trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 0% versus Dijon 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 0% | Dijon 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.30 xG and Dijon 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.970 / defence 0.946 | Dijon attack 0.882 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Nancy games / 4 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 41% | Draw 31% | Dijon 28%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Dijon 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nancy 60% | Dijon 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 41% | Draw 31% | Dijon 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Nancy 1.30 / Dijon 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.970 / def 0.946 | Dijon attack 0.882 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Nancy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dijon xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Dijon kick off?
Nancy vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Marcel Picot.
Where is Nancy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Dijon part of?
Nancy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 41% chance of winning, Dijon a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nancy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Nancy 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Nancy and Dijon in?
Nancy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.20
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.35
1.04
Dijon xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nancy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Nancy and 1.04 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nancy's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 2L across 4 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nancy by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nancy have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Dijon in 75%.
Defensively: Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
Have Nancy or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nancy
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Dijon 2-3 Nancy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 0%, Dijon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Nancy and 25% for Dijon.
On the defensive side: Nancy keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Nancy's recent matches and 75% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Nancy's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Dijon tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Dijon in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.