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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Montpellier and RED Star FC 93 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 1, as Montpellier and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.37 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 37% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 37%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 56%, RED Star FC 93 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights