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Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Annecy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Montpellier beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.45 xG and Annecy 1.25 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 32%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 47%, Annecy 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Montpellier winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights