Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.73
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Metz xG
Total xG
3.05
1.55
PAU xG
MetzDrawPAU
2.83
35%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.38
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.499
λ Away (xG)
1.555
Total xG
3.054
League avg home goals
1.369
League avg away goals
1.258
Metz attack strength
0.850
Metz defence strength
1.150
PAU attack strength
1.076
PAU defence strength
1.289
Data phase
PrevSeason
Games used (H/A)
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