🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Metz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Paris FC 3-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Paris FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.74, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 36% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 32%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 46%, Paris FC 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Paris FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Metz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights