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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Metz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grenoble.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Grenoble 3-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.61 xG and Grenoble 0.74 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.14 / defence 0.83 against Grenoble attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 58% | Draw 25% | Grenoble 17%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 47%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Grenoble's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.16 PPG, Grenoble 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights