Metz vs Dunkerque – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Metz's attack rating (1.12) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.12x) against Metz's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.22
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Metz xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Dunkerque xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
4%
24.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Metz and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Metz and 1.07 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.