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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metz beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.71 xG and Clermont Foot 0.67 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 1.24 / defence 0.78 against Clermont Foot attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metz 63% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 14%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 46%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metz 1.22 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights