Metz 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bastia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Metz vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Bastia at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Metz haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Metz's home record at Stade Saint-Symphorien: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bastia haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Bastia have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bastia's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Metz's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Metz have won 1, Bastia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 3–2 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Metz in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 56% versus Bastia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 56% | Bastia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.19 xG and Bastia 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.087 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.129. Data: 0 Metz games / 38 Bastia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 27% | Bastia 42%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Metz 70% | Bastia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 31% | Draw 27% | Bastia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Metz 1.19 / Bastia 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.087 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Bastia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Bastia kick off?
Metz vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 19 August 2024 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Bastia?
Metz 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Metz vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Bastia part of?
Metz vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 31% chance of winning, Bastia a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Metz and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Metz and Bastia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Metz (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Metz's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.71
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Metz xG
Total xG
2.59
1.41
Bastia xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Metz and 1.41 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Metz's recent record stands at 8W 6D 22L from 36 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. Metz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 15L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five. Bastia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Metz have managed 3W 4D 11L from 18 games — 0.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 6W 3D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Metz are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Pre-Season
Bastia
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Bastia in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 8W 6D 22L in their last 36 games (0.83 PPG), while Bastia have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.72 PPG; Bastia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Metz or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bastia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Metz and Bastia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Metz's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Metz
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Bastia 1-1 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 56%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Metz) and 44% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 39% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Metz's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Metz's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Bastia tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bastia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 1, as Metz and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.19 xG and Bastia 1.41 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bastia attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 31% | Draw 27% | Bastia 42%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 56%, Bastia 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.